Today I want to talk about something that I get asked about from time to time from many people. And they also want to know about what the impact of COVID has had to some degree and where we’re going. So I chalk that up to be essentially a conversation about market insights and opportunities. And so I thought I would touch on some high-level stuff, but stuff that is usable information that you can take away and apply to your investment strategy today and going forward into 2021. And I think this is an important topic because a lot of people are trying to understand what is going to happen in 2021. As we go into a new year, having now gone through an election with potential changes to tax implications for real estate investors. And I don’t want to get into a tax conversation today, but I do want to talk about some of the trends that are going on. What’s happening to home prices and home values. Will they continue to rise? What might be driving that some of the trends and demographics that are going on and, uh, talk about some of the fastest-growing us metropolitan areas where migration patterns are going, what’s happening to rents around the country. Maybe we’ll just touch upon a few macroeconomic variables, and I’ll just leave you with some insight as to opportunities that are on the table and coming up. So with that, let’s talk about some market insights and opportunities.
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So as many of you know, I’m pretty much an ongoing perpetual bull in the real estate market. And what I mean by that is rather than being a downer, being a bearish person, thinking that the real estate market or the housing market is going to go down or crash. I don’t look at it that way because I look at real estate markets as being very, very granular. I look at them as being local markets. Now, sure. There are some macroeconomic factors like interest rates that will affect investors and housing because the affordability of real estate is definitely being affected by interest rates. And you know, that affects your monthly payment and that’s what we buy on. But aside from some of these macroeconomic factors, generally speaking, you will always find good opportunities out there in different markets. Those markets change, you might have to change your market or your investment strategy, but those opportunities will always be out there in real estate. So whether that’s in one particular market that you’re in today, maybe it’s your market or another market tomorrow, you will find opportunities by changing markets, changing areas within those markets, and looking at different neighborhoods, the opportunities are out there. This is why I believe that you can always be a real estate investor. The deals are there. It’s just having the right team, knowing what to look for, and putting in the effort to find those opportunities. And that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s difficult, especially if you know what you’re looking for and you have the right team working with you.
So let’s start off with some market insight. Let’s talk about some national trends. We all know that home prices have been driven up and have been going up steadily for many, many years more so over the last two to four years, depending on what market you’re talking about. But the national trend has been that home prices have been driven up. Now, there are many factors driving this, but let’s touch upon two or three of them. First and foremost, let’s talk about COVID because that’s kind of fresh on everybody’s mind with COVID. If you look at the change of address data from the United States postal service, you will see that during this COVID period, this Coronavirus pandemic over 15.9 million people moved, moved during the coronavirus pandemic. And that number would have been a lot higher. If sellers prospective sellers would have put their properties for sale on the MLS, which they didn’t many people held off and they didn’t put their properties up for sale fact only about an estimated 40% of those people who were planning to sell this past selling season, which is spring-summer actually listed their properties. That leaves an estimated 60% of housing out there that could have been put on the market for sale didn’t sell. So there were some restrictions in terms of constraint, inventory for people to move, but we’re talking 16 million people that move during the coronavirus pandemic and the bulk of the individuals that were moving were leaving largely populated cities, cities like New York, Chicago, Brooklyn, San Francisco, you get the idea and where were they moving to?
Well, they were moving to smaller cities and suburbs. The States that had the big cities lost the most people. Now, those people moved sometimes within the state to less densely populated areas or the suburbs. And that is a big trend. So learn that word suburbs. People are moving out of the cities, but this is especially true in California. A lot of people have been moving from very expensive coastal markets, inland, not necessarily out of state, but a lot of people have been moving out of state as well. And the States with the biggest cities have lost the most people. Now, who’s moving well. It’s really anybody and everybody, but the two biggest categories or demographics, if you will, are those people who can work remotely. They don’t have to report to an office. They don’t have to essentially be tethered to their location. They have the ability to work remotely. If they have a phone and a laptop and the ability to, and work at the same time, which gives them some lifestyle flexibility and the other type of person that we’re moving. We’re college students. And that is because a lot of the course material can be completed online. You don’t necessarily have to be in a classroom or an auditorium to complete many of the courses that are out there, clearly trades and whatnot. You have to be hands-on and you have to be there. But a lot of college students were able to complete their courses online from wherever they lived or move to. Now, why is this happening? Well, the decision to move at this time could be really twofold. One is those people who have really been caught up and swept up in the fear of COVID-19, we’re really moving to avoid catching the flu catching this virus.
The other reason is that it really boiled down to economic reasons. People who had either the mobility with their employment or their business or they were unemployed. And it was an opportunity to make a move that they were thinking about or planning to do for a long time. Now we’re given the opportunity to move. So a lot of it is economic. There are many economic reasons, but a lot of people have come to the realization that I don’t need to live in an expensive place in the inter-core or downtown in a city where it is not inexpensive. And I need to be close to work. They realize that they can work elsewhere and it just opened the door for them to move. So that’s one of the main points. The other thing is that affordability became better in the mid-market. Now, when I say mid-market, I’m not talking about a real estate market, I’m talking about the mid-market in the real estate spectrum of pricing. So not the low end, not the affordable housing or the cheap housing and not the high end, the premium housing, the McMansions and all that stuff. I’m talking about the mid-market of the spectrum of markets of properties within the market. So this was largely due to lower mortgage rates, mortgage payments, as a percentage of income fell to 15.3% of a person’s income in July of this year, middle of the year. And that was down by more than a percentage point from a year ago where it was at 16.5%. So you can see that because of lower interest rates, we are actually seeing affordability as a whole on average going up, not down. So even though real estate prices are on a tear in many markets and overall, they have been going up year after year. The affordability has actually increased as well, which a lot of people find this a little surprising, but because interest rates have dropped so far and they’re probably expected to continue to drop, we are seeing affordability increasing, not decreasing the problem out there is the tight supply, which I’ll get to in a minute.
The other thing about affordability is you need to remember that people and whether they’re investors or whether they are homeowners, they purchase based on the monthly payment, not so much on the purchase price. Yes, the purchase price is important to them. They’re going to look at the price and probably try to negotiate the best price they can. But at the end of the day, they’re asking themselves, can I afford this house? Can I afford to live here? And that just means that they have to look at what they have for income and what they pay each month in terms of a mortgage payment or their principal interest tax insurance, their PITI, so people buy based on monthly payments, just like a car. If you go buy a car, you’re not buying a car necessarily based on the price being 30, 50, $70,000. It’s really more about how much is it per month? Is it three 59? Is it 500 is a thousand a month? What can I afford? And so that affordability also helps to drive prices up. And that’s what we’ve seen. That’s what’s been happening. And as I mentioned, you know, the short supply nationwide is also creating that pinch.
So let’s talk about that for a second. Supply is tight has been tight for a long time, continues to be tight, and will continue to be tight. So if you’re a real estate investor and you’re listening to this, that’s a problem. But it’s also a great thing because it just means that you are on the right side of the fence. If you own real estate, it just means that property values are being driven up. And this is fairly organic. It’s not necessarily unnatural because it’s really just supplying demand. So that means your equity in general overall should be increasing because property values are going up. So baby boomers are staying put that’s. One of the issues here is that baby boomers who are now well into their retirement years, do not want to move. They’re happy where they’re at. They want to stay there for whatever reason it may be, which means they’re not putting housing on the market. And they probably are going to have a hard time finding housing anyway. So it just feeds upon itself. But Freddie Mac actually released some data recently and they released this information on a regular basis, but they were saying that between now 2020 and the year 2030, that we are going to have a housing unit shortage of somewhere between 1 million to 4 million housing units. Now that’s a widespread, but regardless of whether you’re on the high or the low end of that spectrum, think about that for the next 10 years. We’re going to have anywhere from one to 4 million housing units short in this country. And that’s a big, big problem because we already have a housing shortage now, and this is just adding more fuel to the fire. So three years ago in 2017, we were already short 370,000 housing units across the United States. And so it’s been a problem for a long time. In fact, it’s actually been a problem since the early two-thousands, if not beyond that, there was a very short period of time there, right before the housing market crash, where we probably were at equilibrium where we had enough housing units being built to keep up with demand. And so we would probably had enough housing at that time to just keep things normal. But then we had some surplus inventory come on the market after the housing market crash. And then we were back at it, you know, in 2011, 2012 hit and people were starting to buy quickly and then it just accelerated.
So what does this mean? It really just leads to increased occupancy at homes. It leads to increased rental rates. You know, the rents you collect from your property and it leads to increased property values. I mean, it’s really just putting upward pressure on everything. Property values, rental rates, and occupancy. Again, all these things are great for real estate investors, existing real estate investors, even new real estate investors coming into newer markets, because you’re going to feel these trends they’re going to impact you as we go. So this tight supply is like a two-edged sword on the one hand. It’s a problem. On the other hand, it’s a great opportunity. Now, when it comes to demand, Fannie Mae was again saying that we need 1.6, 2 million housing units per year to keep up with existing housing demand. We foresee that increasing because of organic population growth through births, basically, net growth migration into the US although that’s kind of been tailed off a little bit, but we see that expanding in the years to come, especially if we have a democratic party-led government because you know, they’re very pro-immigration. So they want people to come in. So that’s just going to add more pressure to the housing market. We have not supplied that 1.62 million household units that Fannie Mae says we need since 2007. Now this varies by year as I mentioned, but here’s some interesting facts, a couple of facts, Gen Y or in other words, what we call the millennials. They’re now starting to move out into the rental market. There’s 72 million of those people, and those numbers vary depending on whose report you’re reading, but they basically just agree that the millennials is a very, very, very large chunk of people. It’s roughly about 72 million people. Now they’re starting to move into the rental market. They’re going to be looking for units to rent from me, from you. And that is going to put a lot of pressure on the rental market. So those people are going to be looking for housing and they may not be able to find it at least not quickly. And so that’s, again, a problem, but a good problem at the same time. So think about that as you think about real estate investing, going forward and building your portfolio, and then there’s Gen Z, which is the demographic right after them. And the oldest of the Gen Z demographic is now turning 23 years old. Now this demographic, again, numbers vary. They are roughly between 68 to 82 million people that are about to get out of the house and rent. So we’ve got these two generations, gen Y and gen Z that are essentially living with friends or living at home. And they are now coming out into the marketplace. And they’re both going to have demand for rental housing. Maybe some of them are going to be buying homes. So that’s just added on the rental market.
And here’s the other thing too, is a concept called shadow demand. Shadow demand is essentially the demand for housing that’s there and it’s coming into the light, but you don’t see it yet. That’s why it’s in the shadows. It’s kind of like what we used to talk about back in 2006, seven, eight, nine in regards to shadow inventory. This was inventory that was coming out in the near future. You knew it was there. It just wasn’t out on the market yet. But that shadow inventory was really a lot of foreclosures, foreclosures that were coming. That weren’t actually foreclosed yet. You don’t see it, but it’s there. So now we have this problem of shadow demand, which again is a good problem. Now, these are the young people that are living at home, which is currently a whopping 52% of us young adults living with their parents. So in this particular year, 52% of 18 to 29-year-olds are actually living with their parents. So you think about that. That’s a very, very large segment of people. And if you look back as far back as 1900, and you look at every decade, we actually peaked in the 1940s with 48% of 18 to 29-year-olds living at home with their parents. That was a record. And then a dropped radically over the next two decades to a low of 29% in the 1960s. I guess you know, the, um, the sixties was an interesting time, you know, flower power and all that stuff. People didn’t want to be at home. They just wanted to get out and be anywhere and everywhere. But that trend continued to increase year after year, decade after decade, since then in 2010, we actually hit a high of 44%. And don’t forget we had the financial crisis in 2007 and 2008. So that probably played into it quite well. But right now we’re looking at 52% of those 18 to 20-year-olds, 29-year-olds living at home.
So those people are going to want to move out sometime soon. So we’ve got that dynamic going on. There’s those people that are looking for more space because of COVID, you know, now people are cooped up at home, a lot more people, and they’re realizing that this is just too much too tight. I need to get out. I need my own place. I need to find my own place to rent or my own place to buy. So people are going to be moving out because of that. And interestingly, I’ve read articles here and there that divorce rates have increased because of COVID as well. For the same reasons. You know, you get cooped up and you’re with your spouse, 24/7, you probably get on each other’s nerves a little bit more so, so that increased divorce rate is also going to push some people out into, you know, into the market. The thing is, is when you have a married couple and they get divorced, you’ve now doubled, doubled the demand and the need for housing, because you’ve gone from one housing unit, one household to now, what is essentially two households, because you have two people who are separated living in different places. So if you want to double the size of the real estate market overnight, you basically just have everyone divorce. Now that’s not realistic, of course, and that’s not going to happen, but I’m just saying.
So those are the national trends. Prices have been going up and they are going to continue to rise. We have a lot of young adults living at home with their parents a lot, and those people are going to start to move out. If you look at moving trends, I just want to touch on this. If you look at the cities that have gained and lost the most in terms of movers during coronavirus, what’s interesting is many Texas cities have been recipients of people who have been moving from other cities and other States, Katie Richmond, Frisco, Georgetown, uh, you know, these are just suburbs of major metropolitan areas, but a lot of them have been in Texas, but you look at the biggest losers if you will.And the markets that have lost the most by far has been New York, New York, trying to do the math in my head roughly about seven times. What it was last year is how many movers have moved out of New York. Brooklyn was also a major net loss, Chicago, San Francisco, California, Los Angeles, California, and no surprise there. Interestingly, Naples, Florida, although in Florida has been a major recipient of people moving into the state. This one place Naples has lost a lot of people for whatever reason. I don’t know, but Washington DC, which makes a lot of sense because it’s unbelievably overpriced and you know, Philadelphia to some degree. So those are the moving trends during COVID. Now, what are the fastest-growing US Metros? There’s no data for 2020 that I could have included in this, but let’s just talk about the fastest-growing US metros. And this is really kind of like a top 10 list if you will. But at the top of the list from 2010 to 2019 Austin Roundrock Georgetown, that metropolitan area, which is a large MSA, remember that it gained almost 30%, that’s a 30% change in population and grew 30% over that nine-year period, which is enormous right behind that is again, we’re talking metropolitan areas here, you know, very large areas, not very specific cities within those Metro areas, but the Raleigh and Cary North Carolina Metro area came in. Number two, Orlando came in number three at 22% Charleston, North Charleston, South Carolina region is almost 21% growth over that nine-year period. Now, this is going forward. These are a lot of the markets we’re in. So the Houston Metro area grew 19.4%. That’s a market we’re in have been for a long time and still are North port we’re in that market. That’s a relatively new market for us. The North port Sarasota and Bradenton, Florida market that grew 19.2% San Antonio. We are in that market as well, currently and New Braunfels. So those are two markets that we have been in and out of for the last few years, Dallas Fort worth. Now Dallas has gotten kind of pricey as so many people have been moving there, but there are still some opportunity there that market grew 19% a market that we have a hard time getting into, especially now. And maybe it’s kind of long past that ship has sailed as the Phoenix, Mesa, and Chandler Arizona market that grew about 18% over the last nine years. Now, it’s still a strong market and I expect it to continue to grow. It’s just hard to find inventory and numbers that make sense. Next is the Charlotte North Carolina Metro, further on down the list. I’m not going to go through all of these, but the Jacksonville Florida market grew almost 16% over the last nine years. Tampa st. Petersburg. It’s been tough to get into that market lately, but that’s almost 15%. The Atlanta Sandy Springs in Alpharetta market in Georgia is about 14% salt Lake city. Again has gotten a little bit pricey, but we’re still in there with new construction fourplexes. And that grew 13.3% over the last nine years, of course, Oklahoma City, we’re currently in as well, strong growth, 12.4%, and I’ll stop there. You know, some other Texas markets are on this list, net migration, just at a very high-level Florida’s largest recipient of people. They are gaining roughly 610 people per day. That’s an incredible growth. So Florida ranks, number one in the nation among the largest net migration recipients since 2018 for a gain of nearly 226,600 people here in the last 12 months in that period actually ran for the data I could find from July 2018 to July 2019. So it’s a little bit dated, but not much.
Again, we’re talking about net migration trends here, so that’s not going to have changed much. And if anything, it probably is increased in 2020. So Florida was the leader. As far as the States go, Texas was number two with roughly 522 people moving in per day. Thirdly was Arizona. North Carolina was fourth. Georgia was fifth, Washington was sixth, South Carolina was seventh. Tennessee was eight. Nevada was after that. And then we get into some expensive States here like Colorado and Oregon, just because they are very strong in jobs. But what’s interesting to see is these top five States are actually States that we’ve been in for many, many years. If you want to break that down to the city level, I’ll give you the top five or six or so Phoenix, Arizona, it’s number one, Dallas, Texas, Austin, Texas, Atlanta, Georgia, Tampa, Florida, Houston, Texas. And if you go down the list, you’ll see, there’s like markets like Jacksonville, Florida, and San Antonio and Nashville, Tennessee, other markets that we’ve been in and out of. So just to kind of start wrapping things up here, I’ll talk about a couple other concepts, if you will, that have to do with market insights and where some opportunities lie. Well, let’s talk about the index. The homebuilder confidence index is an index that is put out by, I think the national home builders association. I have to check that, but it shows home builders and buyers, how they’re feeling actually about the confidence that they have in the housing market. And this goes back all the way to 1998. But what they’re really trying to show is how the feelings of optimism are supported out there by the people who are building the homes and buying the homes. And so they update this index regularly and it’s very jaggedy. In fact, you know, you’ll see that it was as high as 78 or so back in the late nineties. And then it kind of dipped for a while until 2000. And then it went back up again over 70, and then it dropped rather hard come 2006, seven. And of course, it bottomed around 2008, 2009, and then it started to gyrate sideways and then start to go back up again, right at the beginning of 2012. And then it kept going up not in a straight line, but it worked its way up pretty rapidly. And then it just gyrated up and continue to go up. And right now it’s at 78, it’s at almost an all-time high. And that just shows you that there is very high optimism between builders and buyers in the market, especially for new construction, but just in housing for housing in general. So that’s a very, very bullish sign and it really just supports and confirms everything we see and everything that’s going on.
Now comment about the trends in rents, what is referred to as the single-family rent index. And this is put out by John Burns. He puts out some great content and does some great market research. So in September 2020, the year over year growth has been highest. Now I’m looking at a map of the US here. And so every city is colored by a different dot, but you will see that a lot of these markets like in the Midwest and the South and parts of Florida and parts of Texas have been experiencing the strongest rental growth, for example, Kansas City, Memphis, Tennessee, Birmingham, Alabama, Atlanta, Georgia. You know, these are markets that we’re in Jacksonville, Florida, Tampa, Florida, you know, these are markets that we’ve been in for a long, long time and they continue to grow. But even the markets that are not growing that fast. And by the way, when I’m talking about fast rental growth, I’m talking four to 5% or more. In fact, everything I just listed was over 5%, but a lot of them are in the three to 5% growth range. What’s interesting about this map too, is if you look at the coastal cities, the coastal markets like Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, the East Bay area in California, a lot of these places are experiencing zero or even negative rental growth year over year from 2019 to 2020. But where are they going? You’ll see that the inland empire, basically the inner portions of the state of California are very much green, meaning that they’re experiencing very high rental growth. Whereas these coastal markets are red showing that they’re experiencing zero to 2% or negative growth. And that’s also true for Miami New York parts of New Jersey Pittsburgh. Interestingly enough. So Houston actually, we’re talking about the intercourse Houston here also was basically flat, but the perimeters, the suburbs, again, the suburbs where the growth is really happening across the country is where you’re seeing the greatest rental growth.
And so that’s something to keep in mind when you’re investing in real estate, because of this trend for people to be moving further and further away from the city, not into the urban areas, but certainly into the suburbs. So just to wrap it up, a couple of things that I got from Doug Duncan, the chief economist at Fannie Mae, and he heads up Fannie Mae economics. He gave me a slide about three weeks ago and it kind of paints the picture of what he sees for 2021. And in terms of real gross domestic product, basically our production as an economy, he actually sees it going up like we’re usually floating around two to two and a half percent with the exception of this year because of COVID. But he’s predicting that it will go up to three and a half percent next year, which if you do the math and you think about that, that’s actually a pretty tremendous amount of growth from two to two and a half percent. And so that means we’ll have a very strong, robust economy. Now, I don’t know if he’s changed his predictions because of the recent election. This was pre-election, but I still suspect that we’re going to see a rebound as this COVID thing passes, the unemployment rate he expects to drop. Uh, we were roughly at 7.2% nationwide here in 2020 at the time of this information, but he expects that to drop to about 5.8% inflation, pretty much flat 2%, which is really what the fed target rate is for maintaining inflation in the US economy. So he expects that to remain pretty flat, which is a good thing. And we wanted a little bit of inflation if you’re a real estate investor because inflation is our friend. It helps us in so many different ways. And then lastly, the ten-year treasury bond, the yield on that is really what determines our 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. So it is something to pay attention to and know about. It was 2.9% of 2018. It dropped to 2.1% in 2019, and we saw our mortgage rates drop. And then in 2020, we saw it drop quite a bit to 0.9%. We saw mortgage rates drop even more. And so for next year, he’s predicting it to be 0.8%, a very, very small drop. It’s just a change of 0.1%. But the point is is that the trend is still down. And even if it’s flat, we’re probably going to see interest rates stay where they are, which is again great for affordability. Great. As a real estate investor, it’s cheap, cheap money, and why not let your tenants pay that down and let inflation eat it away.
So from a macroeconomic perspective, I think things are looking bright for next year, 2021, certainly bullish for us and, you know, opportunities, like I said at the beginning are often and everywhere. It’s just a matter of knowing where to look and what to look for. So three quick examples, just off the top of my head, I’ll just throw out there. Memphis, Tennessee, still a very strong market with strong population growth, a robust job market, which is coming back in a high tenure growth of 37% over the next 10 years. And the numbers are very affordable. It works very, very well. So Memphis is a good market, especially if you’re looking for a cashflow property, Indianapolis is another great market against a strong ten-year growth rate of 37%. They’re expecting to grow to 2.5 million people by 2050. So Indianapolis is very much a long-term play. It’s more like the tortoise, not the Hare and Southwest Florida specifically markets like Cape Coral and Port Charlotte. You know, markets that we’re building new construction in these markets are experiencing very rapid growth. The ten-year growth projection, there is 41% or more just the Cape coral Metro area is expected to grow from 1.3 to 1.5 million people in the next five years. And you know, that’s a lot of people that’s not in addition to that’s total population growth, but these people need a place to live or a place to rent. It’s not the quote-unquote cheapest market in Southwest Florida, but it shows very strong growth, especially the forecasted appreciation for the next 12 months, which is not a crystal ball prediction. And I don’t suggest you ever speculate, but just something to keep in mind if you’re looking for a growth market. So keep in mind, we have four or five different markets in Southwest Florida that are available. All right.
Well, I hope that wasn’t too much data and I hope I didn’t go too fast. I want it to provide some market insight and kind of point the compass in the direction of where opportunities might lie, but pay attention to national trends and understand what’s going on, especially demographically, because I think that really is what’s driving the real estate market to a very large degree.
And lastly, just as a pre-announcement, this is not an official announcement, but it will be coming very, very soon. We are launching Norada Real Estate Funding. So for those of you looking for mortgage financing for your real estate properties, we are going to have a whole range of loan products, but especially if you’re a buy and hold investor, and you’re looking for either a 30 year fixed rate mortgage or something that has an adjustable-rate where it’s locked in for three, five, seven or 10 years and then becomes adjustable. And there’s some other options there as well. This is something that will be available for you. If you are having a problem qualifying for conventional financing, start with the conventional financing, if you qualify. And if you can’t because of income, you can’t prove income or you have it, but it’s just not what Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac look for in terms of qualification. And you have a good credit profile, meaning you have a good credit score, but your credit profile is healthy. You don’t have a recent bankruptcy or anything like that. Then this is perfect for you because there is a theoretical, unlimited number of loans that you can get with this. The qualification is more on the property than it is on you. As long as the property is in the right market, in the right location and has a good, what they call debt service, coverage ratio, meaning that it’s cashflow positive and can service the debt then between your credit score and the property, you should be able to qualify for these loans.
So we will have more information coming up soon. I’ll announce it on the podcast, that’ll be on our websites. And at that point, you’ll be able to just go and fill out an application or contact my team. And we’ll be able to give you more information. All right, well, that’s it for today. I appreciate you sticking around and listening to this 36-minute episode. If you have any questions, let me know. If you haven’t already remembered to subscribe, we would greatly love for you to be a regular listener of the show. If you enjoy the content, help us share the show with your friends and family, anybody you know, who likes real estate or investing or finance. And they’re, like-minded like you tell them about Passive Real Estate Investing and that’s it for today. Thank you for listening. And I will see you on our next episode.
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