Aaron Chapman joins us for a year-end review. We’re going to take a look at 2018 as well as 2019 and see where we’re going. Aaron is a 21-year veteran in the mortgage lending space. He lends his smarts, experience, and insights about the mortgage market and the way the industry is working from a lender’s perspective. Learn what’s going on in the mortgage lending industry, how that’s going to affect us, and what we should be doing in terms of investing.
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2019 And Beyond – A Lender’s Perspective
We want to look at 2019 and see where we’re going. What we’re going to do is take a look at 2018 and give it a recap, a year in review. In order to do that, I wanted to bring on someone who was on our show here and that’s one of my favorite people, Aaron Chapman. He is a 21-year veteran in the mortgage lending space. He’s a super sharp guy and smart. I rely on him almost like a mentor because he teaches me things about the mortgage market and the way the industry is working. How it’s going to affect me as an investor and the people that we work with as our client’s investors. He’s got a pretty big team of eleven people. He knows what he’s doing and he’s helpful. I wanted to bring him on to help us understand what has happened, what is going on in the mortgage lending industry, and how that’s going to affect us? What we should be doing in terms of investing? Aaron, welcome to the show.
Thanks. It’s good to be on again.
It’s great to have you back on. I’m reviewing my goals and I’m thinking, “What am I going to be looking at this year in terms of investments? Is it all going to be real estate? Where am I going to be investing? What are mortgage rates doing? Is it even going to impact me?” I know you have an answer to that question because we talked about that last time. Why don’t we start by talking about 2018? If you were to recap what happened in 2018 at a macro level in terms of mortgage financing and how that applies to investing, how would you summarize 2018?
We got more settled into the financing real estate investor better than we had at any other time since the crash. As a matter of those people who want to invest, they want to get involved in it, they want to use the regular conforming financing, we were able to find those investors, banks and those other pools of funds that were more amiable to the real estate investment financing. It used to be they were fighting with us all the time. We have to prove that it wasn’t as risky a deal. I can’t say that they bought into it being lower risk than the owner-occupied. There’s still a lot of that out there but it doesn’t change the fact that we are able to do more. We’re continuing to see high volume. What’s interesting is the volume of transactions globally as far as real estate finance has dropped at 40% plus. We’re seeing across the board big declines in applications taken, amount of loans that are closed, but real estate investment has continued to climb. We’ve seen a 116% gain. That’s what I’ve seen in my own personal business. That’s inside a business that has shrunk nationally as far as lending in general.
The other thing that I’d like to summarize is we’ve seen rates take a direction that was completely opposite of what people have been used to for the last decade. They’ve been used to rates going down or rates staying at an extremely low point. All of the sudden, we’ve got the quantitative tightening introduced at the end of 2017 and it overtook the mortgage market in 2018 to the extent that we’ve seen interest rates that were traditionally for a real estate investor down in the 4%, going up into the mid-6% and then recede back. That right there was getting the real estate investor good with the fact that rates are not 4% anymore or at least in the mid-4%. That took a transition. Once they understood the tax deductibility of the rate a little bit better because now they had to wrap their head around, it is easy to cashflow very well before no matter what deal you picked up. Now you get to a point where you have to be a little bit more discerning. You have to have a little bit more time into the research.
The real estate investor has more time in the research that they didn’t have before, because before it was a frenzy. If a property popped up on the market, somebody bought it because they didn’t care. The interest rates were so low that it allowed for some padding in mistakes. Mistakes are not so easily made now that you’re not going to pay for if you’re not taking a little bit more time to analyze the property. That we’ve seen happen too. A little bit of sharpening of a person’s skills when it comes to analyzation of the property. There’s no more jumping and grabbing it and hope for the best. It is one where it’s tactical.
We were talking about what was going on in terms of the mortgage market and how things were changing. What has changed since we last recorded?
The biggest change was the direction of the interest rates and mainly the flow of money into the mortgage-backed securities versus stocks. Mortgage-backed securities is a bond. It’s a pool of money that’s been set aside to be able to use for 30 years. That money gets put to use by somebody buying some real estate, financing it with that property. The rate of return is set for 30 years or until that particular note is paid off. It’s like any other bond. I have a mortgage-backed securities chart that shows the Fannie Mae 4% coupon. It’s what we looked at before. This covers all the way back to January 8, 2016. It’s how far back this goes. We talked about before where you can see back on in November of 2016 the big drop that happened when we had the election. We get over to January 2018 when the Fed instituted the quantitative tightening, which is the Federal Reserve putting in less money into the mortgage-backed securities.
Where we talked last was down where everything was bottoming out. We were talking about if the analysts are correct in their thoughts with where the market’s going to go going into 2019 or at least end of the year 2018, that we would get back some of the ground that we lost in the mortgage-backed securities. They sold off those positions, bringing it to a lower value, therefore, interest rates going up. As you can see, since then, not quite half of that has been gained back. We talked about getting half of it back that’s going to be up somewhere. We’re going to see that continues to go and gain ground until we get back half of what we lost from when Jerome Powell had announced that they were doing the quantitative tightening.
What happened is this chart bottomed at the beginning of November and it bounced back rapidly since then. Tell us what the implications of this are to a real estate investor. Why would I care? What does this mean to me?
This dictates the flow of money into these pools. As the pools increase, as we’re seeing it going up that means there’s an increase in available funds, therefore interest rates are declining. It’s supply and demand, like any other type of instrument or Economics 101. The greater the supply, the lower the demand, the lower the price. The higher the demand, the lower the supply, the greater the price. In this world, the price is the rate. That’s what the end result is. It’s based on supply or demand. Since the supply is gaining ground and since we are getting more and more supply in there, more investors are buying into that pool because evidently, they’re leaving stock.
Stocks have been taking quite the hit since back in September. September 28 is starting a run on a decline in stock. I wouldn’t say unprecedented but has been pretty heavy duty to the extent that that money has had to go somewhere and it’s flown into the mortgage-backed securities, therefore, forcing our interest rates down. The real big deal to this, what I find to be the most interesting piece of that is what brought the rates down, to begin with, was the quantitative easing. This shows the purchases that the Fed has made into the mortgage-backed securities over the last however many years.
Double-digit billions all the time.
This is for a two-week window. Some of these are showing a month window. You’re seeing $5.8 billion, $12 billion, $24 billion, $26 billion. That was the Fed injecting money into this pool and increasing the supply. The higher the supply, the lower the price. Because the Fed is dumping in tens of billions of dollars at a shot, that supply was forcing the rate low. We get to the end of 2017 where they introduced quantitative tightening. That quantitative tightening then started shrinking the supply because the Federal is not putting in billions. We see in one month’s time from December 14th to January 14, the plan was $300 million. What is the difference between $300 million and $20 billion? It’s a lot. That was since the market took on some gains, the mortgage-backed securities market was taking a lot of gains. The Federal Reserve was putting in a lot less than they were previously. What that’s telling me is the market is putting more money in there. The market is having more of a say in what direction the rates are going. People are feeling more secure in the mortgage-backed securities than they had in the past.
Of course, there was a lot of sell-off, there’s a lot of jump-out from 2018 because they’re thinking, “If the Fed is not there to help us out and subsidize it, we need to put our money elsewhere because it may not be as valuable.” My interpretation of it that this may be the best place for us to go. It used to be called the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry. When you’re thinking of all the different places to put your money, whether it be stocks, bonds, commodities, precious metals, currency trading, there’s a lot flowing into mortgage-backed securities. It seems more secure than it had been. There’s a lot less default and there had been in the past. To me, this was a big deal to see that the Fed is putting in so much less than they have since quantitative easing started back in 2009. It is gaining ground from where it bottomed out at and it’s all going off of private capital mostly. There’s a little bit from the Fed but not much.
Let me dumb this down. Let’s bring it down to the street level and I’m going to ask the question that probably a lot of people are asking. What does this mean to me? What does all that mean to the average Joe real estate investor?
What it means to me as a real estate investor is that we may have seen, I wouldn’t say the worst of the rates but it may be the worst that we would have to factor into our pro formas for the foreseeable future. For 2019 going forward, if we’re maintaining this particular direction, we’ve seen as high as six and three eights for investors to take on. Some of them with the lower price points and lower credit scores like a six and a half, it still worked for their numbers. That might be our cap in 2019 if this continues to hold this trajectory. We’re going to be seeing those lower sixes, higher fives and that would give one the confidence to keep moving forward into buying into properties or at least go into contract. They’re going to have a 90-day or 120-day rehab, sometimes a construction time. The market has seen possibly worst as far as rates are concerned. Have a little bit more faith going into those longer contracts and not stress so much about what the rates going to do.
The thing that real estate investors care about the most it seems are interest rates. Most people default to a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Sometimes people go with the fifteen and in certain instances, certain scenarios people will go with an adjustable rate mortgage. For the most part, people are looking at the 30-year rate. They don’t like it when it goes up. They love it when it comes down. What are analysts saying about the rates? I have some answers to this question. I want to hear what you have to say but let’s talk about what analysts are talking about in terms of rates for 2019.
The analysts that I subscribed to spend a few dollars every year to make sure I get their information. They’re saying, “We’re not done gaining ground on this. We’re not done in seeing rates drop even more.” That is the claim. The only risk with thinking that’s coming is people are going to get into the mode where they’re trying to time everything. They’re going to try and time the rate like they try and time the market. When is the best time to buy the house? When is the best time to buy the property? Do I buy into the loans and get the financing done? When’s the best time? When’s the best time to buy into a certain stock? We saw the Bitcoin thing.
There are so many different things that we, as humans, want to be the one who times it perfectly but only the lucky ignorant ones are the ones who actually seem to time it perfectly. They’re not even paying attention and it seems to work out for them. The only risk with that and in trying to follow what the analysts are saying and the fact that it’s going to continue to get better as far as rates are concerned because we’re not done in the stock market taking the beating according to what they’re saying. People may bypass some good deals thinking that the rates may get a little bit better, the extra eighth of a percent or that quarter percent. Putting in position to miss out on an opportunity.
Most everything I’m reading has to do with rates rising. I don’t think I’ve read an article that said 2019 is going to show us lower rates. From the Bankers Association to Zillow, everybody’s saying that the 30-year mortgage rates are going to continue to rise. Zillow’s now forecasting that that 30-year rate will finish up around 5.8% in 2019, which is a considerable move. The good news for real estate investors and landlords is we’re going to see increased demand for rentals because that’s going to price people out of the market. They’re not going to be able to buy homes and they’re going to be forced to go into the rental pool and rent. Those higher rates are actually beneficial even though it might squeeze in some cases our returns. The cap rates and the cash on cash returns we see increases that rental demand.
Beyond mortgage rates, what we’re expecting to see is an increase in rents. Supply and demand, when we see that demand increasing, it will start to push up on rental rates. If that’s a prediction what’s going to happen in 2019, we can expect to see rent rates go up and maybe slower than previous years, especially in terms of price appreciation. I’m not a speculator and I don’t advise people to speculate on real estate. I’ll take higher rents in lieu of rapidly rising prices at any day. I know that over time, it all works out and I’ll get that equity. I think it’s a good time to be a real estate investor. What do you think of all these predictions that rates are going to go up measurably in 2019?
I don’t know that’s incorrect. When you’re talking about 2019 as a whole, we’re probably going to see them increase before 2019 is closed out. I’m listing these guys analyze it like a 24 to 48-hour window. That’s what they’re looking at. They’re trying to give us a reasonable idea what that’s going to look like. When they keep talking, “We’re seeing this continue to improve,” that is a short-lived thought process that I’m done listening to on a day-to-day basis. I’ve been hearing that every single day since, early November that we’ve been saying, “We’re going to see some continued improvement.” We get to a point where they refer to it like in any other charter graph when it comes to securities. It will hit resistance, or it will hit support and then we’re bouncing off support and plowing through resistance and we continue to keep climbing.
For the interim, for the next little bit, I’m thinking that we may continue to see some improvement but overall an increase in rate to me would be the wisest thing to believe is going to occur. We don’t have that subsidiary that the government had put in there. All it takes is some considered reversal in the stock market and it’s going to start sucking money from our bonds. When it starts pulling money from the bonds, it’s going to push those stocks back up. They always say is what goes up, must come down and what goes down must come up. Stocks is taking a dramatic move to the negative but it could easily reverse. It’s amazing how that particular world seems to have the greatest amount of seesaw of anything out there because so many people are watching equities. They want to see equities improved. They can’t wait to see how equities improved so they will believe any hint of news that would help equities improve. That’s when we started seeing things like what we saw, that massive thousand-point gained in one day to lose it all shortly after.
That was December 26th. We saw a thousand and some spike in that one day in the Dow, which was a 5% move and we saw 5% plus moves in the other markets. In talking to you before, it barely put a dent in the mortgage market.
We’re thinking if stocks are going to accept a thousand-point move, the money’s got to come from somewhere. Typically, we’d see all bonds, treasuries, mortgage-backed securities or whatever take a beating as a result. This was the 26th. There’s hardly any negative movement. It opened up 101.55, it closed at 101.42. That’s not a big move. Thirteen points are all we saw as far as the negative movement that day compared to the Dow moving a thousand. To me, that’s encouraging to think that even though the Dow sucked a lot of money in, it didn’t pull people out of bonds. Those who are investing there stood their ground. There’s what was referred to as a head fake in stocks and they didn’t feel that it was warranted that they pulled their money from here and shove it over into the equities market because I would imagine they believed it was ill-placed. As you can see that very next day, we gained ground. The following day, December 28th, we gained ground, 31st gained ground. We continue to keep gaining ground, big gains in the mortgage-backed securities pools. I’m not sure how long that’ll last but even that thousand points was enough to lure people back into the stocks.
How are you encouraging both new investors as well as seasoned investors going into 2019?
I’m continuing to remind them that the true value in the acquisition of investment real estate is in the leverage. Leverage it to 80% on a single-family and buy a property that will stay rented. Ensure that the property you acquire is one that people will want to rent. As long as it stays occupied, that 80% leverage is paid off by the other person. If we look at that like stocks, we were talking about this the whole time. If you buy, put money into a stock and it gains value every year, you feel like you’re doing well. Even though you’re not seeing a single dollar touch your pocket because it’s going up in value, you’re feeling you made a good move. You’re making money. It’s interesting how people feel that way about stocks. If they’re not making cashflow on their property for some reason, they think that they’re not doing anything that is not making them money. In reality, the note being paid down like we’ve discussed many times is a gain averaged over 30 years of 13.33% because they’re paying down the 80% note. When you average it over the 30 years, 13.33% per year is what’s being added on top of your original 20%.
When the fact that we get to outpace inflation, the fact that inflation is eroding the value of the dollar but you get to raise your rents to pace inflation. The payment on the loan does not get raised at all. That same interest has to get paid the same dollar amounts paid for the entire 30 years. Every month, you actually get to add whatever the inflationary amount is to that 13.33%. We decide that 3% is what inflation is, you’re now getting a 16.33% gain on your original investment every year for that 30 years, regardless of whether or not you got a dollar in cashflow. In the stock world, they say that was a massive win. For some reason in the real estate world, we’re thinking, “My gains only have to be cashflow.” Cashflow is the cherry on top of the sundae. If you get cashflow, you’re compounding your returns through the roof.
I want to make sure that the audience understands where you’re driving the 16.3%. It’s essentially the gains in equity by amortizing that loan over the 30-year period, which we all know is small in the beginning in the first few years. It grows faster as time goes on because you’re paying less interest and more principal. If you take those 30 years and you divide that total gain of the amortization by 30 years, it averages out to the 16.3% per year. When you look at it that way, you can almost call it a return on equity but you divide that into your down payment. That’s where you’re getting that 16.3% gain. A lot of people don’t think about that. They look at it as, “I’m gaining equity. It’s amortizing the loan.” It’s true, it’s amortizing the loan. You’re gaining equity, your tenant is paying it off but when you put it into percentage term it is like, “I am getting a rate of return here at 16.3%.” That was a great way to point that out, Aaron.
As a reminder, it’s 13.33% on the amortization of loan plus whatever inflation is doing. We’re guessing inflation is around 3% since you get the pace inflation with your rents but yet the payment does not increase on the loan. It’s going to be the same for 30 years. That right there, inflation itself is helping you tremendously. That’s not even getting into the tax benefits, the potential cashflows, and the appreciation of the property. There are other factors here that you throw in there. I always want to encourage those coming into this, whether they’re seasoned or whether they’re new to it. There are so many more things associated with investing in real estate than cashflow. Cashflow is the cherry on top of the sundae. If you’re getting that, you need to be ridiculously happy about it. There’s huge value in all the other pieces of it.
That’s an interesting perspective because a lot of people are hyper-focused on cashflow. When it’s too “low,” that’s subjective. It’s different for different people. They lose sight of the bigger picture in terms of what are all the other ways we benefit and gain from owning real estate. We want positive cashflow but we shouldn’t be so short-sighted that we’re looking at a good deal and letting it go because it’s not paying enough this year. In three years, chances are you’re going to increase the rent and your cashflow will increase. By that time, you’re going to have more equity in the property, you’re having the tax benefits, and you’re probably adding more properties to your portfolio which averages out your overall income. You can’t be too short-sighted. That’s one of the takeaways here in what you are saying, Aaron. The way I would encourage people for 2019 is to don’t lose momentum, continue to build your portfolio, and focus on good markets.
Those markets do change a little bit from year to year because we have markets like Dallas that have become a little overpriced. It’s been appreciating so much over the last years that the numbers are not as sexy as they used to be. We’re opening up other markets and a lot of times those are tertiary markets but that’s okay. You got to look where the markets are growing, find the right deals, and then focus on good neighborhoods. You’ve got that tenant pool and the sustainability of having that investment perform for you over the long-term and grow in terms of price appreciation. If you do that, you can build a portfolio and you’ll do well in 2019, 2020, and the years beyond that. That’s my encouraging words to people and in the hopes of inspiring them. Stay the course. Because rates have gone up a quarter point or a half point last year or more should not discourage you. We still have historically low interest rates and we should take advantage of that. Stuck up, get as much as you can.
Speaking of historically low interest rates and back to what you said, stay in the course. This is the long game. You can’t look at one individual deal to make a break for your business. It has to be the average of many of them. Ultimately, you did mention about the rates swing around and how much we have seen move. We had seen as much as a five-eighths of a percent this year move around. We’ve seen as much as a full 1% from 2017.
If we go backwards, we talked about in the last podcast where you go back to 2006, some of the data that I’ve found. To get an interest rate of 5.99% through Chase at that time, for an investment property was going to cost close to eight to nine points. It’s extremely pricey. There may be times in the last little bit that that same rate would have been one to one and a half points, possibly even two, depending upon the loan size and other things. It shows a big difference. In 2006, everybody was jumping in the mortgage-backed securities but everybody thought that was the place to go put your money. It crashed in late 2007 and then 2008 when the crash was realized. If we are lower now than we were then and the Fed is not supporting it as much as they had been, it’s pretty encouraging to me that we’re going to continue to see rates within about a point of where we’re at. It’s my own personal thought looking back that far and how the market is accepting of the mortgage-backed securities comparative to where they were and we don’t have as much Fed involved.
What is driving our future? We’re now in 2019 and we’re moving beyond. What’s driving you?
Legacy. How am I going to take everything that I’ve got in here and hand that off to my children? We talked briefly before about how I had created this trust. I have implemented a lot of things within the trust. I had my children’s involvement but I had to ask one question. I had asked my kids what do they not know? That came about. I remember reading a story that somebody had put out about his own experience. He was boarding a plane, getting ready to go on a flight and his chest was bugging him. His breathing was labored. His wife was with him and when they landed on the first leg of their journey, they had to layover. They went from the airport to the hospital. They put him through some tests, told him he was fine to continue on this journey. He flies on to the next destination and he’s on his way there. The pilot comes on the intercom. He says his name and asked him to identify himself, which tells me he was going southwest. He had to push the button to get the flight attendant to come to him. She had let him know that when they land, he would have to exit the plane first and an ambulance was waiting for him.
When he got there, the medics had grabbed him, put him on the ambulance and took him to the hospital. When he got there, two surgeons were waiting for him and said, “He was misdiagnosed at the last location and he had a pulmonary aneurysm.” The question was asked of him at that point was, “If there’s anything in your life that you need to be considering, now is the time.” I put myself in that thought process and asked myself, “What is it that I need to be considering?” I do a lot of travel. There’s a lot of time I’m away from my home. I’m not saying that I’m going to be faced with that same thing but what do my children need to know?
I sat them down. We had our family meeting. We have it once a month over the trust and where our assets at. What are we doing with our life insurance? They need to look at and vote on all our investments. I’m trying to put together a system in place so I can hand that off to investors so they know how to bring their children up through the same thought process. Have something, not just hand them money, hand them a trust but the hand them a business that they can continue on. They need to put in a certain amount of money every year. It’s their money to be part of it. They have to participate now and not later to help build it. I asked the question, “What do you not know? What is it I have failed to give you information-wise as far as what you need to know in life? What do you need to have known of me as your father? What do you need to know about the trust?”
We sat down for about an hour and I wrote out a lot of things. I had to give them a lot of data of what they need to handle if that ever happened, if I didn’t come back from a trip. Who are the first three people they have to call? Where do they have to go online to start taking care of certain things in business? It was actually reassuring. What’s driving me is to help others come to the same realization. Yes, we want to build your business. We want to build your real estate portfolio. We want to help you have a future. We want to help you feel better about what you’re moving into but we also want to help you feel more confident about what you’re leaving behind. That way when you’ve exited this world, you’ve taken care of all things you can possibly handle and you’ve put those behind you in a position to succeed because you existed.
How old are your kids?
21, 19, 17 and 12.
How early do you think, doing what you’re doing, is the right time to start with kids?
As early as they can possibly understand what a dollar is. I’m meeting with some folks. There’s a system that I’m vetting out that is a way of monetizing daily chores. In monetizing that, it creates an actual account for the children, credit cards, the whole works and a way to integrate it into this. I’m testing it out as we speak and figure out how that all works so I can help others. I can bring that to investors as well. Here’s a way to help teach your children the value of the dollar, the value of work, and they can see it real time on their computer. It plugs in right there. It shows them their account balance of what they have done and then they can also from a very early age start participating in the growth of the family business.
Let me know what you find. I was actually looking at apps that do exactly that. There are apps out there that you could literally create a debit card for your kids and fund it based on achievements or chores and it is spendable.
This one that I’ve got reports to the credit bureaus, the whole works. I’ll see if we can get you connected with these guys and this may be a dual type of deal, we can work on to try and help our investors.
I’m looking into it so we might as well work on it together.
I’m close friends with the developer of it. The end of this last year, he’s all about, “How do I help the legacy of things?” I’m like, “That’s been my drive.” We sat down over dinner and he gave me the rundown of what he’s doing. This perfectly integrated from what I can see.
I’m thinking a lot about that. My daughter is eleven, going on eleven and a half and I think about it almost daily. What does she not know that she needs to know? How can I help her, teach her, and what should I be reading to her? How do I educate her about the things that I’m doing and investing in like you are? You need to not only leave that education with your children, your knowledge but also what is the legacy I’m going to leave behind not just with family but for other people? That’s why creating this content and bringing people on like yourself could live out there forever. It’s another footprint that you’re leaving in history. The more we help other people, the better we can feel about ourselves.
We’d leave this world with two things in my opinion, relationships and experience. You can’t have one without the other. It’s what we leave behind as well, these relationships and experience if you’re properly teaching those around us, what those experiences are.
It’s always a lot of fun having you on, Aaron. I want to thank you for your time. It’s another good chat. Let’s get it out there and share it with the world. We’ll have you back on in the near future, I’m sure.
I appreciate it. Anytime I get an opportunity, I’ll jump on it.
Thanks for your time, Aaron. Take care.
Thank you.
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Let’s work on leaving a legacy, educating our friends, family, not preaching of course but helping them in the best way we know possible. Sometimes that’s directly giving them information, sharing what you know and your knowledge. Sometimes it is referring resources to them, books, workshops, masterclasses, and podcasts like this and your referrals are greatly appreciated. Let’s help our friends and family out. We are bettering ourselves. Let’s help to better our friends and better the world. One way to do that is to download the free report, Ultimate Guide To Passive Real Estate Investing. Go to PassiveRealEstateInvesting.com. If you have a question, submit that on the same website. Click on Ask Marco and I’ll do an Ask Marco episode. I’ll try and do one once a month. If you haven’t subscribed, we’re on virtually every platform. Hit subscribe on iTunes, Google Play, Stitcher, Soundcloud or whatever it may be and help us spread the word. Leave us a rating and review. Those are always greatly appreciated. Thank you for that. Thanks and we will see you again in the next episode.
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